Cardiff 1–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

J. Philogene 65'

10/29/2022

Championship · Round 18Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cardiff52%

×Draw25%

Rotherham23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.93

Cardiff

1.56

Rotherham

0.93

Cardiff creates 68% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 10 away

1.05

creates per match

0.48

1.37

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Cardiff

1.05

Rotherham

0.48

allows per match

Cardiff

1.37

Rotherham

2.07

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.03on par

Rotherham+0.02on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

77%

Cardiff or Rotherham

75%

Draw or Rotherham

48%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

27%

Rotherham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

79%

Cardiff 2+ goals

46%

Cardiff 3+ goals

21%

Rotherham 1+ goals

61%

Rotherham 2+ goals

24%

Rotherham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

70%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.48, concedes 2.07 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.05 + Rotherham defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.56

Rotherham attack 0.48 + Cardiff defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cardiff scores more

52%

level

25%

Rotherham scores more

23%

Cardiff at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ralls

Cardiff · M

7.5

Match Events

46'

M. Romeo← T. Sang

46'

J. Philogene← N. Nkounkou

59'

B. Norton-Cuffy← C. Humphreys

62'

R. Sawyers← A. Rinomhota

65'

J. Philogene↳ M. Romeo

70'

J. Lindsay← O. Rathbone

70'

T. Eaves← G. Kelly

73'

Lee Peltier

77'

S. High← C. Washington

77'

J. McCart← R. Wood

88'

G. Whyte← S. Ojo

90+2'

K. Etete← M. Harris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffRotherham

Overview

63%Possession37%

19Total Shots3

10Corners3

3Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots3

5On Target0

6Off Target2

8Blocked1

10Inside Box0

9Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

504Total Passes308

402Accurate Passes209

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

3Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1