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Cardiff vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
M. Pack 88'
L. Wing 8'
5/8/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cardiff50%
×Draw26%
Rotherham23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.48
Rotherham
0.92

Cardiff creates 61% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 92 away

creates per match

Cardiff
1.21
Rotherham
0.68

allows per match

Cardiff
1.15
Rotherham
1.75

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
77%
Cardiff or Rotherham
74%
Draw or Rotherham
50%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
25%
Rotherham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
77%
Cardiff 2+ goals
43%
Cardiff 3+ goals
19%
Rotherham 1+ goals
60%
Rotherham 2+ goals
23%
Rotherham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
68%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 149 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.21 + Rotherham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rotherham attack 0.68 + Cardiff defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cardiff scores more
50%
level
26%
Rotherham scores more
23%

Cardiff at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
L. WingRotherhamRotherham · M
8.0

Match Events

8'
L. Wing
39'
Michael Ihiekwe
46'
M. Harris← R. Colwill
52'
Joe Ralls
59'
J. Williams← L. Bacuna
59'
J. Murphy← K. Moore
62'
J. Lindsay← F. Jozefzoon
70'
Ben Wiles
77'
S. Ojo← H. Wilson
87'
J. Mattock← B. Wiles
88'
M. Pack↳ M. Harris
90+5'
S. Bamba← J. Murphy
90+1'
F. Ladapo← M. Ihiekwe
90+1'
C. Ogbene← L. Wing

Possession

61%Cardiff

Shots

9Cardiff

Pass accuracy

56%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffRotherham
Overview
61%Possession39%
9Total Shots17
6Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots17
3On Target4
2Off Target10
4Blocked3
3Inside Box10
6Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
388Total Passes243
273Accurate Passes134
70%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Rotherham

Cardiff and Rotherham drew 1-1 in Championship on May 8, 2021.

Goals: L. Wing (8'), M. Pack (88').

Cardiff controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Caerdydd.