Cardiff 4–0 Barnsley: Result & Stats | League One

Cardiff

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Barnsley

C. Willock 69', 45'

O. Kellyman 63'

P. Ng 3'

1/27/2026

League One · Round 29Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cardiff52%

×Draw23%

Barnsley25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.18

Cardiff

1.81

Barnsley

1.18

Cardiff creates 53% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

2.17

creates per match

1.36

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Cardiff

2.17

Barnsley

1.36

allows per match

Cardiff

1.00

Barnsley

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

75%

Cardiff or Barnsley

77%

Draw or Barnsley

48%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

29%

Barnsley wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

84%

Cardiff 2+ goals

54%

Cardiff 3+ goals

27%

Barnsley 1+ goals

69%

Barnsley 2+ goals

33%

Barnsley 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

68%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.17 + Barnsley defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.81

Barnsley attack 1.36 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cardiff scores more

52%

level

23%

Barnsley scores more

25%

Cardiff at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

C. Willock

Cardiff · M

10.0

Match Events

3'

P. Ng↳ O. Tanner

5'

Alex Robertson

17'

Eoghan O'Connell

31'

N. Ogbeta← R. Cleary

45'

C. Willock↳ O. Kellyman

46'

D. Turnbull← A. Robertson

61'

V. Yoganathan← J. Bland

63'

O. Kellyman↳ C. Willock

69'

C. Willock

71'

C. Ashford← O. Tanner

71'

I. Davies← J. Colwill

71'

C. Robinson← O. Kellyman

73'

M. de Gevigney← T. Watson

73'

L. Farrell← A. Phillips

79'

R. Kpakio← J. Bagan

87'

Corey O'Keeffe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffBarnsley

Overview

64%Possession36%

15Total Shots7

6Corners3

7Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target4

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

604Total Passes332

521Accurate Passes252

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1