Barnsley 0–1 Cardiff: Result & Stats | Championship

Barnsley

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cardiff

U. Ikpeazu 71'

2/2/2022

Championship · Round 30Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Barnsley37%

×Draw27%

Cardiff36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.27

Barnsley

1.28

Cardiff

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 61 away

1.00

creates per match

1.03

1.50

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Barnsley

1.00

Cardiff

1.03

allows per match

Barnsley

1.50

Cardiff

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

64%

Barnsley or Cardiff

73%

Draw or Cardiff

63%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

16%

Cardiff wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

72%

Barnsley 2+ goals

37%

Barnsley 3+ goals

14%

Cardiff 1+ goals

72%

Cardiff 2+ goals

36%

Cardiff 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

50%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.00 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Barnsley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barnsley scores more

37%

level

27%

Cardiff scores more

36%

Barnsley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Flint

Cardiff · D

7.5

Match Events

11'

A. Flint← S. Morrison

39'

Mark McGuinness

56'

I. Davies← M. Watters

59'

Mads Juel Andersen

62'

C. Morris← Domingos Quina

63'

U. Ikpeazu← A. Doughty

64'

66'

71'

72'

77'

A. Bassi← L. Kitching

77'

A. Leya← J. Benson

90+2'

Aden Flint

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnsleyCardiff

Overview

62%Possession38%

8Total Shots5

6Corners0

14Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots5

1On Target1

5Off Target3

2Blocked1

5Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

434Total Passes280

310Accurate Passes151

71%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides6