Cardiff 1–1 Barnsley: Result & Stats | Championship

Cardiff

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barnsley

M. Pack 54'

T. Sibbick 69'

8/7/2021

Championship · Round 1Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cardiff38%

×Draw26%

Barnsley36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.29

Cardiff

1.34

Barnsley

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 4 away

1.19

creates per match

1.50

1.07

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cardiff

1.19

Barnsley

1.50

allows per match

Cardiff

1.07

Barnsley

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

64%

Cardiff or Barnsley

74%

Draw or Barnsley

62%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

17%

Barnsley wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

74%

Cardiff 2+ goals

39%

Cardiff 3+ goals

15%

Barnsley 1+ goals

72%

Barnsley 2+ goals

37%

Barnsley 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

52%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 67 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.19 + Barnsley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Barnsley attack 1.50 + Cardiff defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cardiff scores more

38%

level

26%

Barnsley scores more

36%

Cardiff at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Pack

Cardiff · M

7.9

Match Events

54'

M. Pack↳ R. Giles

63'

J. Benson← R. Palmer

65'

R. Wintle← J. Ralls

69'

T. Sibbick↳ J. Benson

72'

C. Oduor← D. Frieser

76'

K. Moore← L. Bacuna

76'

J. Moon← B. Williams

86'

M. Harris← J. Collins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffBarnsley

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots10

2Corners4

7Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots10

6On Target3

3Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

333Total Passes399

144Accurate Passes226

43%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls6

6Offsides4