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Barnsley vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
C. Woodrow 52'
M. Andersen 20'
K. Moore 68'
S. Ojo 58'
1/27/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Barnsley37%
×Draw27%
Cardiff36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.28
Cardiff
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 61 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.00
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Barnsley
1.50
Cardiff
1.56

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
64%
Barnsley or Cardiff
73%
Draw or Cardiff
63%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
16%
Cardiff wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
72%
Barnsley 2+ goals
37%
Barnsley 3+ goals
14%
Cardiff 1+ goals
72%
Cardiff 2+ goals
36%
Cardiff 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
50%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.00 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Barnsley defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barnsley scores more
37%
level
27%
Cardiff scores more
36%

Barnsley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
K. MooreCardiffCardiff · F
7.6

Match Events

20'
M. Andersen↳ D. Frieser
50'
J. Murphy← J. Hoilett
52'
C. Woodrow↳ A. Mowatt
58'
C. Morris← D. Frieser
58'
S. Morrison← L. Bacuna
58'
S. Ojo↳ J. Murphy
68'
K. Moore↳ J. Ralls
72'
H. Kane← R. Palmer
79'
M. Sollbauer← T. Sibbick
90+4'
M. Pack← S. Ojo

Possession

49%Barnsley

Shots

12Barnsley

Pass accuracy

51%Barnsley

Statistics

BarnsleyCardiff
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots11
1Corners3
21Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots11
4On Target4
5Off Target6
3Blocked1
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
297Total Passes306
129Accurate Passes127
43%Pass Accuracy42%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
21Fouls13
1Offsides6

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Cardiff

Barnsley and Cardiff drew 2-2 in Championship on January 27, 2021.

Goals: M. Andersen (20'), C. Woodrow (52'), S. Ojo (58'), K. Moore (68').

Cardiff controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.