Cagliari 1–0 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cagliari

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benevento

G. Lapadula 76'

2/11/2023

Serie B · Round 24Unipol Domus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Cagliari41%

×Draw28%

Benevento31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.09

Cagliari

1.30

Benevento

1.09

Cagliari creates 19% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 79 away

1.55

creates per match

1.24

0.95

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Cagliari

1.55

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Cagliari

0.95

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

69%

Cagliari or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

59%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

19%

Benevento wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

73%

Cagliari 2+ goals

37%

Cagliari 3+ goals

14%

Benevento 1+ goals

66%

Benevento 2+ goals

30%

Benevento 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

57%

Benevento (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.55 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.30

Benevento attack 1.24 + Cagliari defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cagliari scores more

41%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

31%

Cagliari at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Lapadula

Cagliari · F

7.9

Match Events

14'

Frédéric Veseli

19'

N. Lella← C. Kourfalidis

46'

Zito Luvumbo← M. Mancosu

50'

Giorgio Altare

64'

V. Millico← N. Prelec

65'

S. Pettinari← S. Nwankwo

65'

R. Jureškin← D. Foulon

72'

Antonino La Gumina

73'

Giorgio Altare

73'

Giorgio Altare

76'

G. Lapadula↳ V. Millico

79'

I. Koutsoupias← N. Karić

79'

G. Letizia← F. Veseli

83'

E. Goldaniga← A. Obert

88'

Vincenzo Millico

90+4'

Alberto Dossena

90'

K. Kubica← M. Leverbe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariBenevento

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots8

8Corners3

14Fouls21

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target1

5Off Target5

6Blocked2

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

362Total Passes391

270Accurate Passes296

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls21

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Cagliari vs Benevento

Cagliari beat Benevento 1-0 in Serie B on February 11, 2023.

Goals: G. Lapadula (76').

Benevento controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Unipol Domus in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cagliari vs Benevento