Benevento 1–3 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Benevento

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Cagliari

G. Lapadula 16'

João Pedro 90+3'

L. Pavoletti 64'

C. Lykogiannis 1'

5/9/2021

Serie A · Round 35Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Benevento35%

×Draw25%

Cagliari40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.49

Benevento

1.36

Cagliari

1.49

Cagliari creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 118 away

1.04

creates per match

0.90

2.09

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Benevento

1.04

Cagliari

0.90

allows per match

Benevento

2.09

Cagliari

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

60%

Benevento or Cagliari

75%

Draw or Cagliari

65%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Cagliari wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

74%

Benevento 2+ goals

39%

Benevento 3+ goals

16%

Cagliari 1+ goals

77%

Cagliari 2+ goals

44%

Cagliari 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

46%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.68 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.04 + Cagliari defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cagliari attack 0.90 + Benevento defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Benevento scores more

35%

level

25%

Cagliari scores more

40%

Cagliari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

N. Nández

Cagliari · M

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Andrés Tello

1'

C. Lykogiannis↳ R. Marin

9'

Pasquale Schiattarella

13'

Leonardo Pavoletti

16'

G. Lapadula↳ G. Caprari

46'

G. Zappa← A. Carboni

58'

Alessandro Deiola

64'

L. Pavoletti↳ N. Nández

66'

A. Gaich← R. Insigne

66'

N. Viola← P. Schiattarella

71'

R. Improta← P. Hetemaj

71'

G. Letizia← F. Depaoli

76'

G. Di Serio← G. Caprari

76'

K. Asamoah← C. Lykogiannis

86'

Nicolas ViolaGoal cancelled

88'

A. Duncan← A. Deiola

88'

D. Rugani← R. Marin

90+4'

A. Cerri← L. Pavoletti

90+3'

João Pedro↳ N. Nández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoCagliari

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots9

4Corners5

17Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots9

7On Target3

0Off Target3

0Blocked3

6Inside Box6

1Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

319Total Passes251

247Accurate Passes173

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2