Benevento 0–2 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cagliari

Zito Luvumbo 83'

G. Lapadula 54'

9/10/2022

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Benevento41%

×Draw28%

Cagliari31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Benevento

1.27

Cagliari

1.08

Benevento creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 21 away

1.72

creates per match

1.10

1.05

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Cagliari

1.10

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Cagliari

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

69%

Benevento or Cagliari

72%

Draw or Cagliari

59%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

18%

Cagliari wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

72%

Benevento 2+ goals

36%

Benevento 3+ goals

14%

Cagliari 1+ goals

66%

Cagliari 2+ goals

29%

Cagliari 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

56%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Cagliari away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Cagliari defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cagliari attack 1.10 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Benevento scores more

41%

level

28%

Cagliari scores more

31%

Benevento at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Radunović

Cagliari · G

8.3

Match Events

19'

25'

30'

54'

58'

58'

59'

S. Nwankwo← A. La Gumina

59'

D. Foulon← E. Masciangelo

63'

F. Carboni← N. Viola

63'

A. Deiola← M. Rog

63'

L. Pavoletti← G. Lapadula

67'

C. Ciano← G. Acampora

67'

P. Schiattarella← I. Koutsoupias

73'

G. Letizia← R. Improta

74'

Zito Luvumbo← N. Nández

83'

Zito Luvumbo↳ A. Deiola

85'

Zito LuvumboGoal confirmed

86'

A. Dossena← M. Mancosu

90'

Daam Foulon

90+2'

Gabriele Zappa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoCagliari

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots9

7Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots9

6On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

7Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

354Total Passes435

286Accurate Passes355

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2