Cagliari 1–2 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cagliari

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Benevento

João Pedro 20'

A. Tuia 44'

M. Sau 41'

1/6/2021

Serie A · Round 16Sardegna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cagliari45%

×Draw25%

Benevento30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CagliariExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.23

Cagliari

1.55

Benevento

1.23

Cagliari creates 26% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 23 away

1.27

creates per match

0.96

1.49

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Cagliari

1.27

Benevento

0.96

allows per match

Cagliari

1.49

Benevento

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cagliari+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cagliari or draw

70%

Cagliari or Benevento

75%

Draw or Benevento

55%

Winning margin

Cagliari wins by 2+

22%

Benevento wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cagliari 1+ goals

79%

Cagliari 2+ goals

46%

Cagliari 3+ goals

20%

Benevento 1+ goals

71%

Benevento 2+ goals

35%

Benevento 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cagliari (draw refunded)

60%

Benevento (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.49 · 118 matches

Benevento away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari attack 1.27 + Benevento defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.55

Benevento attack 0.96 + Cagliari defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cagliari scores more

45%

level

25%

Benevento scores more

30%

Cagliari at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

R. Nainggolan

Cagliari · M

7.5

Match Events

5'

Fabrizio Caligara

6'

Pasquale Schiattarella

13'

Gianluca LapadulaGoal cancelled

20'

João Pedro↳ L. Pavoletti

41'

M. Sau↳ P. Schiattarella

44'

A. Tuia↳ R. Insigne

46'

R. Sottil← F. Caligara

68'

G. Simeone← A. Tripaldelli

72'

D. Foulon← R. Insigne

75'

G. Caprari← M. Sau

76'

G. Di Serio← G. Lapadula

77'

F. Pisacane← L. Ceppitelli

81'

G. Pereiro← R. Nainggolan

84'

84'

84'

87'

89'

89'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CagliariBenevento

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots10

7Corners6

18Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target4

6Off Target3

1Blocked3

5Inside Box9

7Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

505Total Passes322

440Accurate Passes250

87%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Serie A: Cagliari 1–2 Benevento

Benevento beat Cagliari 2-1 in Serie A on January 6, 2021.

Goals: João Pedro (20'), M. Sau (41'), A. Tuia (44').

Cagliari controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sardegna Arena in Cagliari.

Cagliari vs Benevento — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Cagliari 1–2 Benevento