Hull City 1–1 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sunderland

D. N'Doye 15'

J. Rodwell 77'

3/3/2015

Premier League · Round 28KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City42%

×Draw25%

Sunderland33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.28

Hull City

1.48

Sunderland

1.28

Hull City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 72 away

1.26

creates per match

0.92

1.64

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Sunderland

0.92

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

Sunderland

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

67%

Hull City or Sunderland

75%

Draw or Sunderland

58%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

20%

Sunderland wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

77%

Hull City 2+ goals

43%

Hull City 3+ goals

19%

Sunderland 1+ goals

72%

Sunderland 2+ goals

37%

Sunderland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

56%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Sunderland defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sunderland attack 0.92 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more

42%

level

25%

Sunderland scores more

33%

Hull City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Wes Brown

15'

D. N'Doye↳ T. Huddlestone

36'

41'

46'

60'

62'

R. Álvarez← L. Cattermole

73'

A. Hernández← N. Jelavić

73'

P. van Aanholt← S. Vergini

74'

C. Wickham← D. Graham

77'

J. Rodwell↳ P. van Aanholt

79'

Andrew Robertson

79'

Sebastian Larsson

87'

Ricardo Álvarez

Possession

Statistics

HullSunderland

Overview

40%Possession60%

6Corners4

10Fouls15

Shots

5On Target3

6Off Target2

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1