Bristol City 2–3 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Stoke City

N. Wells 15'

S. Bell 5'

N. Lowe 89'

S. Hakšabanović 47'

M. Léris 20'

9/30/2023

Championship · Round 9Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 49+ matches

Bristol City45%

×Draw26%

Stoke City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.11

Bristol City

1.46

Stoke City

1.11

Bristol City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 49 away

1.29

creates per match

1.03

1.19

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Stoke City

1.03

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Stoke City

1.64

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Stoke City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

71%

Bristol City or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

55%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

22%

Stoke City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

77%

Bristol City 2+ goals

43%

Bristol City 3+ goals

18%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

30%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

61%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.64 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Stoke City attack 1.03 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bristol City scores more

45%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

29%

Bristol City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Travers

Stoke City · G

7.5

Match Events

5'

S. Bell

15'

N. Wells

20'

M. Léris

46'

J. Tchamadeu← L. Gooch

47'

S. Hakšabanović↳ K. Hoever

53'

A. Weimann← S. Bell

54'

T. Gardner-Hickman← G. Tanner

54'

E. Yeboah← M. Sykes

54'

H. Cornick← N. Wells

65'

N. Lowe← Wesley

75'

L. McNally← M. Rose

75'

W. Burger← D. Johnson

83'

Bae Jun-Ho← S. Hakšabanović

89'

N. Lowe↳ Bae Jun-Ho

90+6'

Andreas Weimann

90+5'

Junior Tchamadeu

90+1'

T. Conway← J. Williams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolStoke

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots6

1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.96

11Corners3

9Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots6

5On Target4

6Off Target0

2Blocked2

6Inside Box2

7Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

396Total Passes375

274Accurate Passes255

69%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2