Bristol City 1–2 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Bristol City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

QPR

A. Scott 3'

Y. Barbet 90+3'

C. Austin 45+3' (pen)

12/30/2021

Championship · Round 25Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Bristol City43%

×Draw28%

QPR29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.98

Bristol City

1.27

QPR

0.98

Bristol City creates 30% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

1.29

creates per match

0.78

1.19

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

QPR

0.78

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

QPR

1.26

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

71%

Bristol City or QPR

72%

Draw or QPR

57%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

19%

QPR wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

72%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

QPR 1+ goals

62%

QPR 2+ goals

26%

QPR 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

60%

QPR (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

QPR attack 0.78 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol City scores more

43%

level

28%

QPR scores more

29%

Bristol City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Y. Barbet

QPR · D

7.3

Match Events

3'

A. Scott

22'

Jimmy Dunne

39'

R. Atkinson← G. Tanner

45+2'

Andy King

45+3'

C. AustinPenalty

56'

56'

60'

65'

67'

74'

85'

90+1'

90+3'

Y. Barbet↳ S. Johansen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolQPR

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots11

5Corners9

14Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target4

4Off Target4

4Blocked3

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

316Total Passes398

221Accurate Passes299

70%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Bristol City vs QPR

QPR beat Bristol City 2-1 in Championship on December 30, 2021.

Goals: A. Scott (3'), C. Austin (45+3' pen), Y. Barbet (90+3').

QPR controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.

Bristol City vs QPR — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol City vs QPR