Brentford 2–2 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Blackburn

Sergi Canós 61'

I. Toney 37' (pen)

J. Davenport 87'

J. Rothwell 18'

12/5/2020

Championship · Round 16Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford53%

×Draw24%

Blackburn23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.01

Brentford

1.68

Blackburn

1.01

Brentford creates 66% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 194 away

1.93

creates per match

1.15

0.87

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Brentford

1.93

Blackburn

1.15

allows per match

Brentford

0.87

Blackburn

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

77%

Brentford or Blackburn

76%

Draw or Blackburn

47%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

29%

Blackburn wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

81%

Brentford 2+ goals

50%

Brentford 3+ goals

24%

Blackburn 1+ goals

64%

Blackburn 2+ goals

27%

Blackburn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

70%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.68

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brentford scores more

53%

level

24%

Blackburn scores more

23%

Brentford at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Pinnock

Brentford · D

7.3

Match Events

5'

Marcus Forss

10'

Barry Douglas

16'

Daniel Ayala← S. Wharton

18'

J. Rothwell↳ H. Elliott

27'

Darragh Lenihan

31'

Vitaly Janelt

36'

Darragh Lenihan

37'

I. ToneyPenalty

38'

J. Buckley← T. Trybull

46'

E. Marcondes← V. Janelt

46'

A. Bell← B. Douglas

49'

Joe Rothwell

57'

Bradley Johnson

61'

Sergi Canós↳ J. Dasilva

63'

T. Dolan← A. Armstrong

64'

J. Davenport← J. Rothwell

71'

B. Mbeumo← M. Forss

77'

T. Fosu← Sergi Canós

81'

D. Thompson← R. Henry

81'

S. Ghoddos← J. Dasilva

82'

Tarique Fosu-Henry

87'

J. Davenport↳ T. Dolan

90'

Thomas Kaminski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordBlackburn

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots7

4Corners2

11Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots7

3On Target2

7Off Target1

6Blocked4

9Inside Box5

7Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

611Total Passes298

518Accurate Passes193

85%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3