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Brentford vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Brentford
Brentford
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
S. Benrahma 71' (pen)
O. Watkins 62'
A. Armstrong 54' (pen), 11'
2/22/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford53%
×Draw24%
Blackburn23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.68
Blackburn
1.01

Brentford creates 66% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 194 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.93
Blackburn
1.15

allows per match

Brentford
0.87
Blackburn
1.43

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par
Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
77%
Brentford or Blackburn
76%
Draw or Blackburn
47%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
29%
Blackburn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
81%
Brentford 2+ goals
50%
Brentford 3+ goals
24%
Blackburn 1+ goals
64%
Blackburn 2+ goals
27%
Blackburn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
70%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Blackburn defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.68

Blackburn attack 1.15 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brentford scores more
53%
level
24%
Blackburn scores more
23%

Brentford at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. WaltonBlackburnBlackburn · G
7.9

Match Events

11'
A. Armstrong↳ C. Walton
54'
M. Rasmussen← J. Jeanvier
54'
A. ArmstrongPenalty
60'
S. Baptiste← E. Marcondes
62'
O. Watkins↳ H. Dalsgaard
65'
S. Gallagher← J. Buckley
71'
S. BenrahmaPenalty
73'
E. Bennett← D. Samuel
80'
Bryan Mbeumo
84'
H. Dervişoğlu← R. Henry

Possession

63%Brentford

Shots

20Brentford

Pass accuracy

54%Brentford

Statistics

BrentfordBlackburn
Overview
63%Possession37%
20Total Shots11
7Corners1
12Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots11
9On Target6
7Off Target4
4Blocked1
14Inside Box5
6Outside Box6
Passing
63%Possession37%
459Total Passes278
361Accurate Passes185
79%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Brentford vs Blackburn

Brentford and Blackburn drew 2-2 in Championship on February 22, 2020.

Goals: A. Armstrong (11', 54' pen), O. Watkins (62'), S. Benrahma (71' pen).

Brentford controlled possession (63%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Griffin Park in Brentford, Middlesex.