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Blackburn vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brentford
Brentford
K. Palmer 54'
8/25/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Blackburn35%
×Draw27%
Brentford37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.22
Brentford
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 189 home / 70 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.34
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Blackburn
1.11
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
63%
Blackburn or Brentford
73%
Draw or Brentford
65%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
15%
Brentford wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
70%
Blackburn 2+ goals
34%
Blackburn 3+ goals
12%
Brentford 1+ goals
72%
Brentford 2+ goals
36%
Brentford 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
49%
Brentford (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 189 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.34 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Brentford attack 1.41 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more
35%
level
27%
Brentford scores more
37%

Brentford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
David RayaBlackburnBlackburn · G
7.4

Match Events

54'
K. Palmer
59'
D. Graham← J. Nuttall
64'
A. Judge← M. Forss
65'
Sergi Canós← S. Benrahma
69'
C. Conway← K. Palmer
78'
L. Travis← C. Evans
79'
L. MacLeod← R. Sawyers
90'
Lewis MacLeod

Possession

39%Blackburn

Shots

2Blackburn

Pass accuracy

45%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnBrentford
Overview
39%Possession61%
2Total Shots8
3Corners4
12Fouls10
Shots
2Total Shots8
1On Target3
0Off Target5
1Blocked0
2Inside Box3
0Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
342Total Passes531
218Accurate Passes414
64%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Championship: Blackburn 1–0 Brentford

Blackburn beat Brentford 1-0 in Championship on August 25, 2018.

Goals: K. Palmer (54').

Brentford controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 2.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.