Blackburn 0–1 Brentford: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brentford

I. Toney 10' (pen)

3/12/2021

Championship · Round 36Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Blackburn35%

×Draw27%

Brentford37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.26

Blackburn

1.22

Brentford

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 189 home / 70 away

1.34

creates per match

1.41

1.11

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Blackburn

1.34

Brentford

1.41

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Brentford

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par

Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

63%

Blackburn or Brentford

73%

Draw or Brentford

65%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

15%

Brentford wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

70%

Blackburn 2+ goals

34%

Blackburn 3+ goals

12%

Brentford 1+ goals

72%

Brentford 2+ goals

36%

Brentford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

49%

Brentford (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 189 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.34 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Brentford attack 1.41 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more

35%

level

27%

Brentford scores more

37%

Brentford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Toney

Brentford · F

7.9

Match Events

10'

I. ToneyPenalty

46'

J. Rothwell← S. Gallagher

46'

H. Elliott← B. Brereton

54'

L. Travis← T. Trybull

61'

B. Johnson← L. Travis

72'

Sergi Canós← T. Fosu

72'

E. Marcondes← M. Jensen

75'

John Buckley

76'

S. Ghoddos← C. Nørgaard

77'

E. Bennett← J. Buckley

79'

85'

86'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBrentford

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots13

2Corners3

19Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots13

4On Target3

4Off Target9

2Blocked1

6Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

484Total Passes325

349Accurate Passes196

72%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3