Brann 1–2 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bodo/Glimt

N. Holm 45'

O. Blomberg 86'

A. Helmersen 76'

10/29/2025

Eliteserien · Round 23Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Brann45%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.46

Brann

1.77

Bodo/Glimt

1.46

Brann creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

2.16

creates per match

1.97

0.96

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Brann

2.16

Bodo/Glimt

1.97

allows per match

Brann

0.96

Bodo/Glimt

1.37

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Brann+0.15scores more

Bodo/Glimt+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brann or draw

68%

Brann or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

55%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

24%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

83%

Brann 2+ goals

53%

Brann 3+ goals

26%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

77%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

43%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

58%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.96 · 13 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.37 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.16 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bodo/Glimt attack 1.97 + Brann defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brann scores more

45%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

32%

Brann at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

N. Holm

Brann · F

7.5

Match Events

15'

V. Nielsen← H. Aleesami

30'

Ulrik Mathisen

45'

N. Holm↳ B. Finne

46'

O. Blomberg← S. Fet

57'

N. Castro← N. Holm

58'

N. Boakye← J. Sery Larsen

60'

U. Saltnes← H. Evjen

60'

A. Helmersen← K. Hogh

61'

Jacob Lungi Sørensen

75'

M. Sande← J. Sorensen

75'

M. Haaland← B. Finne

76'

A. Helmersen↳ P. Berg

83'

B. Moe←

84'

L. Remmem← E. Gudmundsson

86'

O. Blomberg↳ S. Auklend

88'

90+9'

90+9'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannBodo/Glimt

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots4

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.19

2Corners1

17Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots4

4On Target2

6Off Target1

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

474Total Passes412

374Accurate Passes301

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2