Bodo/Glimt 5–1 Brann: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Bodo/Glimt

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Brann

S. Fet 89'

P. Berg 77', 55'

J. Gundersen 45+1'

U. Saltnes 20'

A. Heggebø 90+3'

7/7/2024

Eliteserien · Round 13Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bodo/Glimt56%

×Draw21%

Brann23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchBrann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.29

Bodo/Glimt

2.12

Brann

1.29

Bodo/Glimt creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

2.71

creates per match

1.76

0.82

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.71

Brann

1.76

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.82

Brann

1.53

+0.57scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.57scores more

Brann+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Brann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

77%

Bodo/Glimt or Brann

79%

Draw or Brann

44%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

34%

Brann wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

88%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

62%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

35%

Brann 1+ goals

72%

Brann 2+ goals

37%

Brann 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

71%

Brann (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.82 · 18 matches

Brann away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.53 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.71 + Brann defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.12

Brann attack 1.76 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

56%

level

21%

Brann scores more

23%

Bodo/Glimt at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Gundersen

Bodo/Glimt · D

8.7

Match Events

5'

Sivert Heltne Nilsen

10'

Sivert Heltne Nilsen

10'

Sivert Heltne Nilsen

20'

U. Saltnes↳ A. Grønbæk

22'

Patrick Berg

45+1'

J. Gundersen↳ A. Grønbæk

46'

F. Bjørkan← A. Sørensen

46'

M. Warming← B. Finne

46'

U. Mathisen← N. Castro

55'

P. Berg↳ A. Mikkelsen

60'

O. Bjørtuft← B. Moe

61'

J. Hauge← A. Mikkelsen

61'

S. Kartum← T. Pedersen

75'

A. Heggebø← F. Myhre

77'

N. Žugelj← A. Grønbæk

77'

P. Berg

81'

E. Helland← E. Kornvig

82'

S. Fet← B. Wembangomo

89'

S. Fet↳ F. Sjøvold

90+3'

A. Heggebø

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtBrann

Overview

66%Possession34%

20Total Shots8

13Corners4

7Fouls7

Shots

20Total Shots8

5On Target3

7Off Target3

8Blocked2

16Inside Box7

4Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

551Total Passes290

493Accurate Passes221

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides2

Eliteserien: Bodo/Glimt 5–1 Brann

Bodo/Glimt beat Brann 5-1 in Eliteserien on July 7, 2024.

Goals: U. Saltnes (20'), J. Gundersen (45+1'), P. Berg (55', 77'), S. Fet (89'), A. Heggebø (90+3').

Bodo/Glimt controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø.

Bodo/Glimt vs Brann — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Bodo/Glimt 5–1 Brann