Brann 4–1 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Bodo/Glimt

N. Castro 90+6', 19' (pen)

S. Kartum 45+3'

E. Kornvig 27'

P. Zinckernagel 57'

9/22/2024

Eliteserien · Round 23Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Brann44%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.56

Brann

1.80

Bodo/Glimt

1.56

Brann creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

2.23

creates per match

2.08

1.03

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Brann

2.23

Bodo/Glimt

2.08

allows per match

Brann

1.03

Bodo/Glimt

1.37

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Brann+0.19scores more

Bodo/Glimt+0.04on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Brann or draw

66%

Brann or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

56%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

23%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

83%

Brann 2+ goals

54%

Brann 3+ goals

27%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

79%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

46%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

56%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.03 · 12 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.37 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.23 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.08 + Brann defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brann scores more

44%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

34%

Brann at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Castro

Brann · F

9.9

Match Events

7'

Håkon Evjen

17'

Niklas CastroPenalty confirmed

19'

N. CastroPenalty

27'

E. Kornvig

41'

Niklas Castro

45+3'

S. Kartum↳ R. Kristiansen

46'

U. Saltnes← S. Fet

53'

Sander Erik Kartum

54'

Patrick Berg

57'

P. Zinckernagel↳ K. Høgh

65'

I. Määttä← P. Zinckernagel

65'

V. Nielsen← B. Moe

66'

B. Finne← A. Heggebø

66'

M. Sande← O. Didrik Blomberg

71'

M. Tomič← F. Sjøvold

77'

T. Pedersen← E. Helland

79'

A. Helmersen← K. Høgh

90+6'

N. Castro↳ M. Sande

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannBodo/Glimt

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots17

2.03Expected Goals (xG)2.81

5Corners9

14Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots17

8On Target6

3Off Target8

4Blocked3

9Inside Box16

6Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

504Total Passes377

402Accurate Passes294

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Eliteserien: Brann 4–1 Bodo/Glimt

Brann beat Bodo/Glimt 4-1 in Eliteserien on September 22, 2024.

Goals: N. Castro (19' pen, 90+6'), E. Kornvig (27'), S. Kartum (45+3'), P. Zinckernagel (57').

Brann controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 17.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.

Brann vs Bodo/Glimt — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Brann 4–1 Bodo/Glimt