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Brann vs Bodo/Glimt — Eliteserien 2026

Brann
Brann
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
11/26/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 29Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Brann43%
×Draw23%
Bodo/Glimt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brann
1.71
Bodo/Glimt
1.47

Brann creates 16% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Brann
2.25
Bodo/Glimt
2.00

allows per match

Brann
0.93
Bodo/Glimt
1.16

finishing

Brann-0.14scores less
Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Bodo/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Brann or draw
67%
Brann or Bodo/Glimt
77%
Draw or Bodo/Glimt
57%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+
23%
Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals
82%
Brann 2+ goals
51%
Brann 3+ goals
24%
Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
77%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
43%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)
57%
Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.93 · 9 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.25 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.00 + Brann defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brann scores more
43%
level
23%
Bodo/Glimt scores more
33%

Brann at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eliteserien: Brann 4–2 Bodo/Glimt

Brann beat Bodo/Glimt 4-2 in Eliteserien on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Brann Stadion in Bergen.