Botafogo SP 2–1 America Mineiro: Result & Stats

Botafogo SP

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

America Mineiro

Leo Gamalho 70' (pen), 20'

Miguelito 35'

8/2/2025

Serie B · Round 20Estadio Santa Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Botafogo SP42%

×Draw30%

America Mineiro28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botafogo SPExpected goals in this matchAmerica Mineiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.91

Botafogo SP

1.18

America Mineiro

0.91

Botafogo SP creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 33 away

1.05

creates per match

0.76

1.05

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Botafogo SP

1.05

America Mineiro

0.76

allows per match

Botafogo SP

1.05

America Mineiro

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botafogo SP+0.00on par

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botafogo SP ↓

America Mineiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Botafogo SP or draw

72%

Botafogo SP or America Mineiro

70%

Draw or America Mineiro

58%

Winning margin

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

18%

America Mineiro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

69%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

33%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

12%

America Mineiro 1+ goals

60%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

23%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

60%

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botafogo SP attack 1.05 + America Mineiro defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

America Mineiro attack 0.76 + Botafogo SP defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botafogo SP scores more

42%

level

30%

America Mineiro scores more

28%

Botafogo SP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Victor Souza

Botafogo SP · G

8.0

Match Events

3'

Ericson da Silva

20'

Leo Gamalho↳ Jonathan Cafu

35'

Miguelito↳ Stenio

45'

Alisson Cassiano← Ericson

54'

Willian Bigode

62'

Willian BigodePenalty confirmed

68'

Fernando Elizari

70'

Leo GamalhoPenalty

75'

C. Ortiz← Willian Bigode

75'

Arthur Sousa← Stenio

78'

Wesley

80'

G. Risso← Jean Victor

80'

Marquinho← Jonathan Cafu

88'

David Lopes← F. Elizari

88'

F. Labandeira← Figueiredo

89'

Heber← Miguelito

90+7'

Gabriel Risso Patrón

90+5'

Kauã Diniz

90+4'

Paulinho

90+1'

Wallison← Leo Gamalho

90'

Edson← A. Dramisino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotafogoAmerica

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots13

1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.18

1Corners6

18Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target6

7Off Target4

1Blocked3

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

365Total Passes323

301Accurate Passes250

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2