Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro — Serie B 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Botafogo SP42%
America Mineiro28%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Botafogo SP creates 30% more chances
Season form · 39 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Botafogo SP ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Botafogo SP at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches
America Mineiro away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Botafogo SP attack 1.05 + America Mineiro defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17
America Mineiro attack 0.74 + Botafogo SP defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Botafogo SP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Botafogo SP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
remo
Criciuma
Goias
Novorizontino
CRB
Avai
Cuiaba
Atletico Goianiense
Operario-PR
Vila NovaAmerica Mineiro
Athletic ClubBotafogo SP
Ferroviária
Amazonas
Volta Redonda
PaysanduIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Botafogo SP host America Mineiro on Friday, 19 April 2024 at 22:00. The match is part of the Serie B 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Botafogo SP vs America Mineiro
Botafogo SP and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 19, 2024.
Goals: Renato Marques (62'), Bernardo Schappo (90+3').
America Mineiro controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estádio Santa Cruz in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo.