America Mineiro 1–0 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo SP

Cauan Barros 82'

4/5/2025

Serie B · Round 1Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

America Mineiro42%

×Draw27%

Botafogo SP31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.12

America Mineiro

1.34

Botafogo SP

1.12

America Mineiro creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

0.72

1.52

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.47

Botafogo SP

0.72

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.52

Botafogo SP

1.22

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.47scores less

Botafogo SP-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

69%

America Mineiro or Botafogo SP

73%

Draw or Botafogo SP

58%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

19%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

74%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

39%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

15%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

67%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

31%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

57%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.47 + Botafogo SP defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Botafogo SP attack 0.72 + America Mineiro defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

America Mineiro scores more

42%

level

27%

Botafogo SP scores more

31%

America Mineiro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Marlon

America Mineiro · D

8.3

Match Events

22'

Alisson Cassiano

41'

Felipe Amaral

46'

Cauan Barros← Felipe Amaral

58'

Rafael Milhorim

64'

Miguelito← F. Elizari

66'

Matheus Regis← Jefferson Nem

75'

Willian Lins← Jonathan Cafu

75'

A. Dramisino← L. Maciel

80'

Yago Santos← Miqueias

82'

Cauan Barros↳ Figueiredo

86'

S. Abdulai← Wesley Dias

86'

Douglas Baggio← Alisson Cassiano

90+2'

Julio Cesar← Willian Bigode

90+3'

Stenio← Figueiredo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaBotafogo

Overview

70%Possession30%

15Total Shots10

2Corners8

7Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target1

6Off Target6

5Blocked3

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

570Total Passes224

505Accurate Passes169

89%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2