America Mineiro 1–2 Botafogo SP: Result & Stats

America Mineiro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Botafogo SP

Gonzalo Mastriani 8'

Ze Hugo 59'

Everton Morelli 32'

4/1/2026

Serie B · Round 2Arena Independência

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

America Mineiro40%

×Draw27%

Botafogo SP32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchBotafogo SP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.13

America Mineiro

1.30

Botafogo SP

1.13

America Mineiro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

0.77

1.48

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.40

Botafogo SP

0.77

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.48

Botafogo SP

1.20

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

America Mineiro-0.40scores less

Botafogo SP-0.27scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Botafogo SP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

68%

America Mineiro or Botafogo SP

73%

Draw or Botafogo SP

60%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

18%

Botafogo SP wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

73%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

37%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

14%

Botafogo SP 1+ goals

68%

Botafogo SP 2+ goals

31%

Botafogo SP 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

56%

Botafogo SP (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

Botafogo SP away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.40 + Botafogo SP defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Botafogo SP attack 0.77 + America Mineiro defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

America Mineiro scores more

40%

level

27%

Botafogo SP scores more

32%

America Mineiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Rafael Gava

Botafogo SP · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

Gonzalo Mastriani↳ Willian Bigode

32'

Everton Morelli↳ Rafael Gava

45+4'

Kelvin

46'

Thauan← Gabriel Barros

54'

Zé Hugo

59'

Ze Hugo↳ Patrick Brey

61'

Yago Souza← Felipe Amaral

72'

M. Segovia← Willian Bigode

72'

Jhonny← Leo Alaba

75'

Matheus Sales← Rafael Gava

75'

Luizao← Hygor

76'

Luizão

78'

Paulo Victor← Eduardo Person

83'

Jonathan← Gabriel Inocencio

83'

Jefferson Nem← Kelvin

89'

Matheus Sales

90+2'

Gustavo

90+1'

Gonzalo Mastriani

90'

Thiago Moraes← Ze Hugo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaBotafogo

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots13

1.03Expected Goals (xG)1.27

11Corners7

15Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots13

1On Target5

7Off Target4

6Blocked4

7Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

68%Possession32%

480Total Passes225

431Accurate Passes177

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

15Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2