Bolton 3–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

J. Randall 62'

A. Cozier-Duberry 53'

M. Burstow 29'

9/6/2025

League One · Round 7Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bolton52%

×Draw22%

AFC Wimbledon26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.27

Bolton

1.90

AFC Wimbledon

1.27

Bolton creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.84

creates per match

1.10

1.44

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Bolton

1.84

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

allows per match

Bolton

1.44

AFC Wimbledon

1.96

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Bolton+0.66scores more

AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

74%

Bolton or AFC Wimbledon

78%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

48%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

30%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

85%

Bolton 2+ goals

56%

Bolton 3+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

72%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

36%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

67%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.44 · 12 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.84 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.90

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Bolton defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bolton scores more

52%

level

22%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

26%

Bolton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Morley

Bolton · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

Jake Reeves

29'

M. Burstow

50'

Marcus Browne

53'

A. Cozier-Duberry↳ J. Dacres-Cogley

56'

S. Dalby← M. Burstow

62'

J. Randall↳ M. Conway

66'

M. Forss← J. Randall

67'

O. Bugiel← M. Stevens

67'

A. Hackford← M. Hippolyte

67'

A. Sasu← R. Harbottle

69'

71'

74'

78'

78'

78'

J. McAtee← A. Cozier-Duberry

88'

88'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonAFC

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots9

8Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

24Total Shots9

8On Target2

8Off Target4

8Blocked3

17Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

440Total Passes284

369Accurate Passes196

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards2

3Offsides3