AFC Wimbledon 3–3 Bolton: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bolton

D. Awokoya-Mebude 75'

A. Presley 74' (pen)

W. Nightingale 20'

O. Afolayan 48'

J. Sheehan 27'

E. Doyle 23' (pen)

8/14/2021

League One · Round 2The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

AFC Wimbledon32%

×Draw25%

Bolton44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.58

AFC Wimbledon

1.31

Bolton

1.58

Bolton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.22

creates per match

1.51

1.66

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.22

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.66

Bolton

1.41

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.22scores less

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

56%

AFC Wimbledon or Bolton

75%

Draw or Bolton

68%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

14%

Bolton wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

73%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

38%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

14%

Bolton 1+ goals

79%

Bolton 2+ goals

47%

Bolton 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

42%

Bolton (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.22 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bolton attack 1.51 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

32%

level

25%

Bolton scores more

44%

Bolton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Hartigan

AFC Wimbledon · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

W. Nightingale↳ A. Hartigan

22'

Nik Tzanev

23'

E. DoylePenalty

27'

J. Sheehan↳ E. Doyle

35'

Josh Sheehan

48'

O. Afolayan↳ A. Bakayoko

53'

Gethin Jones

62'

Ben Heneghan

64'

A. Presley← O. Palmer

64'

D. Awokoya-Mebude← L. McCormick

65'

Nesta Guinness-Walker

68'

H. Lawrence← N. Guinness-Walker

74'

G. Johnston← D. John

74'

A. PresleyPenalty

75'

D. Awokoya-Mebude

79'

L. Isgrove← A. Bakayoko

79'

E. Kachunga← O. Afolayan

80'

Ayoub Assal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCBolton

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots8

6Corners3

12Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target4

8Off Target2

4Blocked2

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

343Total Passes306

239Accurate Passes201

70%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4