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AFC Wimbledon vs Bolton — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bolton
Bolton
C. Blackett-Taylor 13'
1/31/2026League OneLeague One · Round 30The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

AFC Wimbledon30%
×Draw24%
Bolton46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.28
Bolton
1.63

Bolton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.18
Bolton
1.54

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.71
Bolton
1.39

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.08on par
Bolton-0.36scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
54%
AFC Wimbledon or Bolton
76%
Draw or Bolton
70%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
13%
Bolton wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
72%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
37%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
14%
Bolton 1+ goals
80%
Bolton 2+ goals
48%
Bolton 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
40%
Bolton (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 10 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.18 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Bolton attack 1.54 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%
level
24%
Bolton scores more
46%

Bolton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35
C. Blackett-TaylorBoltonBolton · M
7.6

Match Events

13'
C. Blackett-Taylor↳ J. McAtee
46'
R. Nkeng← N. Asiimwe
60'
John McAtee
67'
M. Stevens← A. Hackford
68'
X. Simons← J. McAtee
68'
T. Gale← C. Blackett-Taylor
72'
I. Cissoko← R. Apter
73'
Z. Nelson← C. Maycock
79'
O. Bugiel← M. Browne
80'
M. Hippolyte← J. Reeves
83'
C. Christie← J. Osei-Tutu
83'
M. Burstow← K. Dempsey
90+5'
Alistair Smith

Possession

46%AFC

Shots

15AFC

Pass accuracy

49%AFC

Statistics

AFCBolton
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots16
1.60Expected Goals (xG)1.15
5Corners4
9Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots16
0On Target6
9Off Target5
6Blocked5
7Inside Box9
8Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
365Total Passes439
263Accurate Passes330
72%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

League One: AFC Wimbledon 0–1 Bolton

Bolton beat AFC Wimbledon 1-0 in League One on January 31, 2026.

Goals: C. Blackett-Taylor (13').

Bolton controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.