Bolton 4–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

A. Bakayoko 87'

D. Charles 67'

O. Afolayan 56'

J. Böðvarsson 36'

2/19/2022

League One · Round 34University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bolton52%

×Draw23%

AFC Wimbledon25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

Bolton

1.88

AFC Wimbledon

1.25

Bolton creates 50% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.84

creates per match

1.07

1.44

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Bolton

1.84

AFC Wimbledon

1.07

allows per match

Bolton

1.44

AFC Wimbledon

1.92

+0.66scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Bolton+0.66scores more

AFC Wimbledon+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

75%

Bolton or AFC Wimbledon

77%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

48%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

29%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

85%

Bolton 2+ goals

56%

Bolton 3+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

71%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

36%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

67%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.44 · 12 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.84 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.88

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.07 + Bolton defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bolton scores more

52%

level

23%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

25%

Bolton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Charles

Bolton · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

George Marsh

36'

J. Böðvarsson↳ A. Morley

42'

Oladapo Afolayan

56'

O. Afolayan↳ D. Charles

63'

W. Nightingale← T. Kalinauskas

67'

D. Charles

71'

A. Bakayoko← J. Böðvarsson

72'

K. Sadlier← O. Afolayan

75'

A. Cosgrave← E. Chislett

75'

T. Ablade← S. Cosgrove

82'

G. Thomason← K. Dempsey

87'

A. Bakayoko↳ M. Fossey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonAFC

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots6

6Corners2

8Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots6

4On Target1

11Off Target3

2Blocked2

12Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

489Total Passes337

379Accurate Passes229

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1