Blackpool 0–0 Luton: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

9/22/2018

League One · Round 9Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool36%

×Draw23%

Luton41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.69

Blackpool

1.59

Luton

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.49

creates per match

1.74

1.63

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Luton

1.74

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Luton

1.70

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Luton-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

59%

Blackpool or Luton

77%

Draw or Luton

64%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

18%

Luton wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

80%

Blackpool 2+ goals

47%

Blackpool 3+ goals

21%

Luton 1+ goals

82%

Luton 2+ goals

50%

Luton 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

47%

Luton (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Luton away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.70 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Luton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Luton attack 1.74 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackpool scores more

36%

level

23%

Luton scores more

41%

Luton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Ben Heneghan

46'

C. Guy← J. OSullivan

70'

M. Nottingham← N. Delfouneso

73'

H. Cornick← J. Grant

80'

A. Gnanduillet← M. Cullen

90+3'

J. Justin← A. Shinnie

Blackpool

Luton

36

5

3

6

16

18

▼

Grant

11

▼

17

7

19

10

1

20

27

16

8

24

18

▼

O'Sulliva

15

Thompson

6

Heneghan

7

▼

Delfounes

9

▼

Cullen

Manager: T. McPhillips

46'▲C. Guy←▼J. OSullivan

70'▲M. Nottingham←▼N. Delfouneso

80'▲A. Gnanduillet←▼M. Cullen

Blackpool substitutes

25Guy12Nottingham21Gnanduillet5O'Connor11Dodoo13Boney17McLaughlin

Manager: N. Jones

73'▲H. Cornick←▼J. Grant

90+3'▲J. Justin←▼A. Shinnie

Luton substitutes

14Cornick2Justin21Senior27Jarvis35Read40Isted44Sheehan