Blackburn 2–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

D. Hyam 82'

R. Hedges 38'

9/13/2022

Championship · Round 10Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Blackburn44%

×Draw27%

Watford29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.04

Blackburn

1.34

Watford

1.04

Blackburn creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

1.31

creates per match

1.01

1.07

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Blackburn

1.07

Watford

1.38

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.28scores less

Watford-0.03on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

71%

Blackburn or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

39%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Watford 1+ goals

65%

Watford 2+ goals

28%

Watford 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

60%

Watford (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.07 · 58 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Watford attack 1.01 + Blackburn defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more

44%

level

27%

Watford scores more

29%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

D. Hyam

Blackburn · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

Dominic Hyam

30'

K. Davis← I. Sarr

38'

R. Hedges↳ T. Dolan

46'

D. Gosling← F. Sierralta

73'

Y. Asprilla← H. Choudhury

73'

Mario Gaspar← J. Ngakia

78'

Ryan Hedges

82'

D. Hyam↳ Daniel Ayala

90+3'

C. Mola← B. Brereton

90+2'

G. Hirst← R. Hedges

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnWatford

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots6

9Corners5

9Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots6

6On Target2

7Off Target1

2Blocked3

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box0

Passing

47%Possession53%

387Total Passes442

293Accurate Passes363

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides2