Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blackburn vs Luton — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Luton
Luton
H. Pickering 31'
T. Dolan 27'
L. Berry 90+8', 73'
9/11/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Blackburn48%
×Draw27%
Luton25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.45
Luton
0.96

Blackburn creates 51% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Luton
1.59

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
75%
Blackburn or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
52%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
24%
Luton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
77%
Blackburn 2+ goals
42%
Blackburn 3+ goals
18%
Luton 1+ goals
62%
Luton 2+ goals
25%
Luton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
66%
Luton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Luton attack 0.85 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Blackburn scores more
48%
level
27%
Luton scores more
25%

Blackburn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
L. BerryLutonLuton · M
8.6

Match Events

8'
Darragh Lenihan
11'
H. Lansbury← A. Campbell
27'
T. Dolan
31'
H. Pickering↳ B. Brereton
36'
Kal Naismith
46'
S. Bradley← D. Potts
48'
Tyrhys Dolan
49'
Ben Brereton
49'
Simon Sluga
50'
Cameron Jerome
59'
Gabriel Osho
59'
L. Berry← Carlos Gomes
61'
Henri Lansbury
67'
Sam Gallagher
73'
L. Berry↳ P. Ruddock
74'
J. Davenport← J. Buckley
80'
T. Magloire← J. Rothwell
90+8'
L. Berry↳ C. Jerome

Possession

47%Blackburn

Shots

11Blackburn

Pass accuracy

50%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnLuton
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots10
0Corners4
11Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots10
5On Target4
4Off Target4
2Blocked2
9Inside Box6
2Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
362Total Passes408
249Accurate Passes280
69%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls11
4Yellow Cards5
3Offsides3

Championship: Blackburn 2–2 Luton

Blackburn and Luton drew 2-2 in Championship on September 11, 2021.

Goals: T. Dolan (27'), H. Pickering (31'), L. Berry (73', 90+8').

Luton controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.