Benevento 1–1 Ascoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ascoli

Diego Farias 48'

Eric Botteghin 6'

10/2/2022

Serie B · Round 7Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Benevento50%

×Draw25%

Ascoli25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchAscoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.06

Benevento

1.61

Ascoli

1.06

Benevento creates 52% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 113 away

1.72

creates per match

1.08

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Ascoli

1.08

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Ascoli

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Ascoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

75%

Benevento or Ascoli

75%

Draw or Ascoli

50%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

26%

Ascoli wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

80%

Benevento 2+ goals

48%

Benevento 3+ goals

22%

Ascoli 1+ goals

65%

Ascoli 2+ goals

29%

Ascoli 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

67%

Ascoli (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Benevento scores more

50%

level

25%

Ascoli scores more

25%

Benevento at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

Eric Botteghin

Ascoli · D

8.3

Match Events

6'

Eric Botteghin↳ N. Falasco

20'

Cedric Gondo

24'

R. Capellini← F. Veseli

46'

Diego Farias← N. Karić

46'

P. Schiattarella← D. Foulon

46'

S. Nwankwo← F. Forte

46'

Pedro Mendes← C. Gondo

48'

Diego Farias↳ C. Ciano

50'

Fabrizio Caligara

61'

C. Pastina← K. Glik

62'

S. Bidaoui← F. Dionisi

69'

Gennaro Acampora

70'

M. Eramo← M. Collocolo

82'

A. Salvi← F. Caligara

82'

A. Ciciretti← M. Falzerano

83'

83'

83'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoAscoli

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots16

7Corners5

13Fouls22

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target4

1Off Target9

3Blocked3

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

343Total Passes357

252Accurate Passes252

73%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls22

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2