Ascoli 0–2 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Benevento

R. Insigne 25'

M. Sau 15'

9/18/2021

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Ascoli34%

×Draw29%

Benevento37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.17

Ascoli

1.11

Benevento

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 79 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.09

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Ascoli

1.18

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Ascoli

1.09

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

63%

Ascoli or Benevento

71%

Draw or Benevento

66%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

14%

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

67%

Ascoli 2+ goals

30%

Ascoli 3+ goals

10%

Benevento 1+ goals

69%

Benevento 2+ goals

33%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

48%

Benevento (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Benevento attack 1.24 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ascoli scores more

34%

level

29%

Benevento scores more

37%

Benevento at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

D. Foulon

Benevento · D

8.3

Match Events

15'

M. Sau↳ D. Foulon

23'

Gennaro Acampora

25'

R. Insigne↳ D. Foulon

31'

Federico Barba

38'

Artur Ioniță

46'

Dario Šarić

46'

A. Iliev← D. Fabbrini

46'

M. Collocolo← F. Caligara

54'

S. Elia← G. Letizia

60'

A. Tello← G. Acampora

64'

F. Maistro← D. Šarić

64'

G. Felicioli← T. DOrazio

71'

G. Lapadula← M. Sau

71'

E. Brignola← R. Insigne

72'

D. Vokić← A. Ioniţă

76'

M. Castorani← F. Baschirotto

78'

80'

83'

86'

86'

90+3'

Gian Filippo Felicioli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliBenevento

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots8

3Corners3

22Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target3

7Off Target5

2Blocked0

3Inside Box8

9Outside Box0

Passing

49%Possession51%

387Total Passes400

317Accurate Passes332

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls19

4Yellow Cards6

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Ascoli vs Benevento

Benevento beat Ascoli 2-0 in Serie B on September 18, 2021.

Goals: M. Sau (15'), R. Insigne (25').

Benevento controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.

Ascoli vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ascoli vs Benevento