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Ascoli vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

Ascoli
Ascoli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Benevento
Benevento
G. Lapadula 38'
5/13/2022Serie BSerie B · Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying RoundStadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Ascoli34%
×Draw29%
Benevento37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ascoli
1.11
Benevento
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 79 away

creates per match

Ascoli
1.18
Benevento
1.24

allows per match

Ascoli
1.09
Benevento
1.05

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw
63%
Ascoli or Benevento
71%
Draw or Benevento
66%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+
14%
Benevento wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals
67%
Ascoli 2+ goals
30%
Ascoli 3+ goals
10%
Benevento 1+ goals
69%
Benevento 2+ goals
33%
Benevento 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)
48%
Benevento (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Benevento attack 1.24 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ascoli scores more
34%
level
29%
Benevento scores more
37%

Benevento at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
A. PaleariBeneventoBenevento · G
8.3

Match Events

25'
Giuseppe Bellusci
31'
Giacomo Calò
36'
Gennaro Acampora
38'
G. Lapadula↳ E. Masciangelo
49'
Riccardo Improta
57'
S. Elia← A. Ioniţă
62'
S. Bidaoui← M. Collocolo
73'
A. Salvi← F. Baschirotto
73'
L. Paganini← F. Maistro
81'
A. Vogliacco← G. Letizia
82'
M. Eramo← N. Falasco
82'
F. Ricci← F. Caligara
88'
Nicola Leali
88'
Federico Dionisi
90+7'
Federico Dionisi
90+7'
Federico DionisiCard upgrade
90'
J. Petriccione← G. Acampora
90'
D. Foulon← R. Improta

Possession

59%Ascoli

Shots

19Ascoli

Pass accuracy

53%Ascoli

Statistics

AscoliBenevento
Overview
59%Possession41%
19Total Shots3
6Corners2
13Fouls16
Shots
19Total Shots3
6On Target1
9Off Target1
4Blocked1
15Inside Box2
4Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
392Total Passes269
304Accurate Passes185
78%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls16
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Ascoli vs Benevento

Benevento beat Ascoli 1-0 in Serie B on May 13, 2022.

Goals: G. Lapadula (38').

Ascoli controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.