Ascoli 0–0 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benevento

2/26/2023

Serie B · Round 26Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Ascoli34%

×Draw29%

Benevento37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.17

Ascoli

1.11

Benevento

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 79 away

1.18

creates per match

1.24

1.09

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Ascoli

1.18

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Ascoli

1.09

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

63%

Ascoli or Benevento

71%

Draw or Benevento

66%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

14%

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

67%

Ascoli 2+ goals

30%

Ascoli 3+ goals

10%

Benevento 1+ goals

69%

Benevento 2+ goals

33%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

48%

Benevento (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Benevento attack 1.24 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ascoli scores more

34%

level

29%

Benevento scores more

37%

Benevento at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

M. Büchel

Ascoli · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

34'

34'

38'

56'

F. Donati← C. Adjapong

62'

C. Pastina← G. Acampora

62'

G. Letizia← H. El Kaouakibi

67'

F. Proia← F. Caligara

67'

F. Dionisi← A. Ciciretti

70'

S. Nwankwo← A. La Gumina

70'

R. Jureškin← D. Foulon

73'

Federico Proia

81'

L. Šimić← Pedro Mendes

81'

C. Lungoyi← F. Proia

84'

Christophe Lungoyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliBenevento

Overview

61%Possession39%

22Total Shots6

7Corners5

17Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots6

3On Target3

12Off Target1

7Blocked2

14Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

459Total Passes311

383Accurate Passes214

83%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3