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Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns W — NWSL Women 2025

Bay FC W
Bay FC W
Preview
21:00
Portland Thorns W
Portland Thorns W
10/18/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StagePayPal Park
Big match
37%
Portland Thorns W
model favours
36%27%37%

Bay FC W sit 14, Portland Thorns W 3 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bay FC W36%
×Draw27%
Portland Thorns W37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bay FC W
1.27
Portland Thorns W
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bay FC W
0.97
Portland Thorns W
1.11

allows per match

Bay FC W
1.45
Portland Thorns W
1.56

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par
Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Portland Thorns W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw
63%
Bay FC W or Portland Thorns W
73%
Draw or Portland Thorns W
64%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+
16%
Portland Thorns W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals
72%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
36%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
14%
Portland Thorns W 1+ goals
72%
Portland Thorns W 2+ goals
37%
Portland Thorns W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)
50%
Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 0.97 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Portland Thorns W attack 1.11 + Bay FC W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bay FC W scores more
36%
level
27%
Portland Thorns W scores more
37%

Portland Thorns W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Portland Thorns W outscore their xG (1.5 vs 0.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Bay FC W
Balanced
Portland Thorns W
Balanced
50%Possession46%
78%Pass accuracy76%
10.8Shots12.1
1.07xGBiggest gap0.79
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bay FC WPortland Thorns W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Bay FC W
0
Draws
3
Portland Thorns W
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 60%
0–21–21–03–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bay FC W host Portland Thorns W

October 18, 2026: Bay FC W take on Portland Thorns W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bay FC W host Portland Thorns W at PayPal Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.