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Barnsley vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
3/7/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Barnsley40%
×Draw27%
Cardiff33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.32
Cardiff
1.19

Barnsley creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 145 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.10
Cardiff
1.15

allows per match

Barnsley
1.22
Cardiff
1.54

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
67%
Barnsley or Cardiff
73%
Draw or Cardiff
60%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
18%
Cardiff wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
73%
Barnsley 2+ goals
38%
Barnsley 3+ goals
15%
Cardiff 1+ goals
70%
Cardiff 2+ goals
33%
Cardiff 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
54%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.22 · 72 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.10 + Cardiff defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cardiff attack 1.15 + Barnsley defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barnsley scores more
40%
level
27%
Cardiff scores more
33%

Barnsley at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Barnsley 0–2 Cardiff

Cardiff beat Barnsley 2-0 in Championship on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.