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Banfield vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Banfield
Banfield
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Platense
Platense
L. Recalde 31'
4/19/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 10Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Banfield43%
×Draw28%
Platense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banfield
1.26
Platense
0.98

Banfield creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 21 away

creates per match

Banfield
1.31
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Banfield
1.23
Platense
1.21

finishing

Banfield-0.19scores less
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Banfield or draw
71%
Banfield or Platense
72%
Draw or Platense
57%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+
19%
Platense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals
72%
Banfield 2+ goals
36%
Banfield 3+ goals
13%
Platense 1+ goals
62%
Platense 2+ goals
26%
Platense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)
60%
Platense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 17 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 1.31 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Platense attack 0.73 + Banfield defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Banfield scores more
43%
level
28%
Platense scores more
29%

Banfield at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
L. RecaldePlatensePlatense · D
8.3

Match Events

30'
Roberto Bochi
31'
L. Recalde↳ M. Bogado
58'
A. Maldonado← L. Gómez
61'
Alexis Sosa
63'
P. Gerzel← N. Bertolo
70'
M. Tissera← J. Pereyra
71'
S. Callegari← A. Messidoro
72'
Luciano Pons
73'
J. Cruz← A. Cabrera
73'
J. Gutiérrez← G. Galoppo
82'
I. Rodríguez← J. Eseiza
89'
C. Núñez← M. Bogado
90+2'
Martín Payero
90'
Luciano Lollo

Possession

62%Banfield

Shots

10Banfield

Pass accuracy

54%Banfield

Statistics

BanfieldPlatense
Overview
62%Possession38%
10Total Shots14
4Corners5
11Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots14
1On Target4
7Off Target7
2Blocked3
3Inside Box9
7Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
531Total Passes321
425Accurate Passes219
80%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls15
4Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Banfield 0–1 Platense

Platense beat Banfield 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 19, 2021.

Goals: L. Recalde (31').

Banfield controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Solá in Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires.