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Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Banfield
Banfield
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
A. Maciel 17'
R. Tesuri 64'
7/20/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Banfield36%
×Draw27%
Atletico Tucuman36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banfield
1.23
Atletico Tucuman
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Banfield
1.27
Atletico Tucuman
1.33

allows per match

Banfield
1.12
Atletico Tucuman
1.20

finishing

Banfield-0.39scores less
Atletico Tucuman-0.76scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Banfield or draw
64%
Banfield or Atletico Tucuman
73%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
64%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals
71%
Banfield 2+ goals
35%
Banfield 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)
50%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.12 · 8 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 1.27 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.33 + Banfield defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Banfield scores more
36%
level
27%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
36%

Banfield at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. GonzálezBanfieldBanfield · M
7.9

Match Events

13'
Mauricio Roldan
17'
A. Maciel↳ M. González
39'
Nicolás Castro
54'
Justo Giani
57'
J. Pereyra← N. Castro
58'
R. Melo← G. Acosta
58'
L. Rodríguez← J. Giani
61'
Y. Calleros← J. Soraire
64'
R. Tesuri↳ L. Rodríguez
71'
G. Rivera← M. Roldán
71'
M. Echeverría← B. Galván
74'
Juan Iribarren
81'
T. Castro Ponce← R. Tesuri
83'
Matías de los Santos
83'
M. Bajamich← M. Estigarribia
87'
J. Álvarez← M. González

Possession

50%Banfield

Shots

13Banfield

Pass accuracy

50%Banfield

Statistics

BanfieldAtletico
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots7
0.69Expected Goals (xG)1.28
10Corners0
10Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target2
6Off Target3
2Blocked2
9Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
346Total Passes366
238Accurate Passes256
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34
Discipline
10Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman

Banfield and Atletico Tucuman drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 20, 2024.

Goals: A. Maciel (17'), R. Tesuri (64').

Banfield controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Solá in Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires.