Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Banfield: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Banfield

M. Coronel 42'

3/5/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 6Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Atletico Tucuman45%

×Draw28%

Banfield27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchBanfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.96

Atletico Tucuman

1.31

Banfield

0.96

Atletico Tucuman creates 36% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 120 away

1.43

creates per match

0.88

1.04

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.43

Banfield

0.88

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.04

Banfield

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par

Banfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Banfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

73%

Atletico Tucuman or Banfield

72%

Draw or Banfield

55%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

21%

Banfield wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

73%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

38%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

14%

Banfield 1+ goals

62%

Banfield 2+ goals

25%

Banfield 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

62%

Banfield (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 122 matches

Banfield away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.19 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Banfield defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Banfield attack 0.88 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

45%

level

28%

Banfield scores more

27%

Atletico Tucuman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Marcelo González

Atletico Tucuman · M

7.5

Match Events

6'

A. Chavez

7'

A. Cabrera

39'

A. R. Maciel

42'

M. Coronel↳ G. Acosta

45+3'

E. Remedi

46'

A. Di Pippa← S. Sosa

46'

M. Giménez← E. Remedi

47'

C. Menéndez← M. Estigarribia

58'

E. Olivera

60'

A. Quiroz← E. Olivera

61'

R. Tesuri← Marcelo González

61'

Y. Cabral← N. Romero

70'

H. De La Fuente

77'

N. Sosa← M. Romero

82'

T. Adoryán← J. Bizans

87'

E. Insua

88'

G. Acosta

88'

I. Maestro Puch← M. Coronel

88'

F. Di Franco← G. Acosta

90+7'

F. Di Franco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBanfield

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots7

6Corners2

15Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots7

2On Target2

5Off Target3

3Blocked2

4Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

293Total Passes397

206Accurate Passes303

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards6

2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Banfield

Atletico Tucuman beat Banfield 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 5, 2023.

Goals: M. Coronel (42').

Banfield controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.

Atletico Tucuman vs Banfield — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Banfield