Atletico Tucuman 0–3 Banfield: Result & Stats

Atletico Tucuman

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Banfield

G. Rivera 90+2', 65'

M. Giménez 59'

3/7/2024

League #1032 · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico Tucuman17%

×Draw30%

Banfield53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico TucumanExpected goals in this matchBanfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.56

1.25

Atletico Tucuman

0.56

Banfield

1.25

Banfield creates 123% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

0.63

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman

0.63

Banfield

1.25

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman

1.25

Banfield

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par

Banfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Banfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–120%

0–213%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw

47%

Atletico Tucuman or Banfield

70%

Draw or Banfield

83%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

4%

Banfield wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

43%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

11%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

2%

Banfield 1+ goals

71%

Banfield 2+ goals

36%

Banfield 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

24%

Banfield (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Banfield away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 0.63 + Banfield defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Banfield attack 1.25 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more

17%

level

30%

Banfield scores more

53%

Banfield at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

G. Rivera

Banfield · M

8.0

Match Events

11'

A. Quiros

32'

Y. Calleros

55'

M. Gimenez

59'

M. Giménez↳ I. Rodríguez

63'

64'

65'

70'

71'

M. Bajamich← J. Giani

72'

J. Infante← M. Orihuela

72'

R. Tesuri← M. Coronel

72'

L. Recalde← B. Sepúlveda

80'

N. Servetto← N. Castro

86'

F. Bonfiglio← G. Paz

86'

C. Núñez← J. Soraire

86'

M. Pérez← I. Rodríguez

90+2'

G. Rivera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoBanfield

Overview

68%Possession32%

25Total Shots7

8Corners2

13Fouls16

Shots

25Total Shots7

6On Target5

10Off Target2

9Blocked0

15Inside Box5

10Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

375Total Passes185

299Accurate Passes102

80%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1