Banfield 0–0 Atletico Tucuman: Result & Stats

Banfield

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Tucuman

10/16/2023

League #1032 · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Banfield58%

×Draw27%

Atletico Tucuman15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BanfieldExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.55

Banfield

1.40

Atletico Tucuman

0.55

Banfield creates 155% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

0.80

creates per match

0.50

0.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Banfield

0.80

Atletico Tucuman

0.50

allows per match

Banfield

0.60

Atletico Tucuman

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banfield+0.00on par

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banfield ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Banfield or draw

85%

Banfield or Atletico Tucuman

73%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

42%

Winning margin

Banfield wins by 2+

29%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Banfield 1+ goals

75%

Banfield 2+ goals

41%

Banfield 3+ goals

17%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

42%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

11%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Banfield (draw refunded)

80%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banfield at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banfield attack 0.80 + Atletico Tucuman defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atletico Tucuman attack 0.50 + Banfield defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Banfield scores more

58%

level

27%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

15%

Banfield at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Banfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

F. Cambeses

Banfield · G

7.3

Match Events

4'

Eric Remedi

57'

G. Rivera← J. Soraire

69'

R. Ruíz Rodríguez← J. Giani

73'

M. González← E. Cañete

79'

G. Paz← N. Romero

79'

Marcelo González← R. Tesuri

81'

Joaquín Pereyra

90+5'

Y. Calleros← J. Bisanz

90+5'

N. Sosa← I. Rodríguez

90+1'

C. Menéndez← M. Coronel

90+1'

T. Castro Ponce← R. Carrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BanfieldAtletico

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots13

6Corners4

14Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target3

5Off Target7

2Blocked3

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

370Total Passes359

271Accurate Passes261

73%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2