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Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
Preview
05:30
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
12/19/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20Best Denki Stadium
Big match
40%
Avispa Fukuoka
model favours
40%27%33%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka40%
×Draw27%
Shimizu S-pulse33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.30
Shimizu S-pulse
1.14

Avispa Fukuoka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.04
Shimizu S-pulse
1.00

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.27
Shimizu S-pulse
1.56

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
67%
Avispa Fukuoka or Shimizu S-pulse
73%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
60%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
18%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
73%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
37%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
14%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
68%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
32%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
55%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.04 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.00 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
40%
level
27%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
33%

Avispa Fukuoka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fukuoka
LWDLD
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Avispa Fukuoka host Shimizu S-pulse

December 19, 2026: Avispa Fukuoka take on Shimizu S-pulse in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Avispa Fukuoka host Shimizu S-pulse at Best Denki Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.