Avispa Fukuoka 3–2 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Albirex Niigata

Y. Kitajima 45'

S. Usui 16'

K. Konno 9'

K. Taniguchi 36'

H. Inamura 4'

6/21/2025

J1 League · Round 21Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka44%

×Draw27%

Albirex Niigata29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.03

Avispa Fukuoka

1.35

Albirex Niigata

1.03

Avispa Fukuoka creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

1.36

creates per match

0.96

1.10

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.36

Albirex Niigata

0.96

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.10

Albirex Niigata

1.33

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka-0.14scores less

Albirex Niigata-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

71%

Avispa Fukuoka or Albirex Niigata

73%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

56%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

21%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

74%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

39%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

15%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

64%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

28%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

61%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.10 · 9 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.36 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Albirex Niigata attack 0.96 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

44%

level

27%

Albirex Niigata scores more

29%

Avispa Fukuoka at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Y. Kitajima

Avispa Fukuoka · F

8.3

Match Events

4'

H. Inamura↳ E. Miyamoto

9'

K. Konno↳ Y. Kitajima

16'

S. Usui↳ Y. Hashimoto

19'

Y. Iwasaki← K. Fujimoto

36'

K. Taniguchi↳ Danilo Gomes

45'

Y. Kitajima↳ Y. Iwasaki

46'

Y. Maejima← T. Kamijima

61'

H. Akiyama← E. Miyamoto

63'

M. Shigemi← H. Akino

63'

S. Nago← K. Konno

75'

K. Yamura← J. Okumura

75'

S. Ota← Danilo Gomes

75'

K. Kasai← M. Hasegawa

81'

Wellington← S. Usui

90'

Shintaro Nago

90+2'

Y. Takagi← Y. Hoshi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvispaAlbirex

Overview

31%Possession69%

8Total Shots10

0.50Expected Goals (xG)0.53

2Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target2

2Off Target3

2Blocked5

6Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

282Total Passes633

224Accurate Passes573

79%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 3–2 Albirex Niigata

Avispa Fukuoka beat Albirex Niigata 3-2 in J1 League on June 21, 2025.

Goals: H. Inamura (4'), K. Konno (9'), S. Usui (16'), K. Taniguchi (36'), Y. Kitajima (45').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (69%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 3–2 Albirex Niigata