Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Avispa Fukuoka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albirex Niigata

K. Taniguchi 49'

8/17/2024

J1 League · Round 27Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka39%

×Draw28%

Albirex Niigata34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avispa FukuokaExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.15

Avispa Fukuoka

1.25

Albirex Niigata

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

1.22

creates per match

1.04

1.25

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.22

Albirex Niigata

1.04

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka

1.25

Albirex Niigata

1.27

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka-0.22scores less

Albirex Niigata-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw

66%

Avispa Fukuoka or Albirex Niigata

72%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

61%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

17%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

71%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

36%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

13%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

68%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

32%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

53%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.27 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.22 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Albirex Niigata attack 1.04 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

39%

level

28%

Albirex Niigata scores more

34%

Avispa Fukuoka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

K. Hashimoto

Albirex Niigata · D

8.3

Match Events

46'

Y. Maejima← S. Inoue

49'

K. Taniguchi↳ M. Fitzgerald

55'

S. Zahedi← R. Sato

64'

M. Shigemi← Y. Iwasaki

80'

M. Kamekawa← I. Oda

80'

R. Tsuruno← D. Matsuoka

82'

E. Matsuda← Danilo Gomes

82'

M. Hasegawa← K. Taniguchi

90+2'

R. Endo← K. Hashimoto

90+2'

Y. Ono← K. Suzuki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvispaAlbirex

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots18

0.48Expected Goals (xG)2.11

2Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots18

1On Target6

6Off Target5

1Blocked7

2Inside Box13

6Outside Box5

Passing

29%Possession71%

256Total Passes628

189Accurate Passes570

74%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls11

1Offsides1

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Albirex Niigata

Albirex Niigata beat Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 in J1 League on August 17, 2024.

Goals: K. Taniguchi (49').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (71%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Fukuoka.

Avispa Fukuoka vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

J1 League: Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Albirex Niigata