Albirex Niigata 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Avispa Fukuoka

M. Tashiro 60'

4/2/2025

J1 League · Round 8Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Albirex Niigata41%

×Draw27%

Avispa Fukuoka32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Albirex Niigata

1.32

Avispa Fukuoka

1.14

Albirex Niigata creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

1.31

creates per match

0.93

1.35

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.31

Avispa Fukuoka

0.93

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.35

Avispa Fukuoka

1.33

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.31scores less

Avispa Fukuoka+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

68%

Albirex Niigata or Avispa Fukuoka

73%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

59%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

19%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

73%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

38%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

15%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

68%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

32%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

56%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.33 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.31 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.93 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

41%

level

27%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

32%

Albirex Niigata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

M. Tashiro

Avispa Fukuoka · D

8.2

Match Events

58'

S. Zahedi← N. Ben Khalifa

60'

M. Tashiro↳ S. Zahedi

62'

Danilo Gomes← J. Okumura

62'

Y. Ono← K. Yamura

71'

Y. Kitajima← H. Akino

71'

K. Konno← S. Nago

77'

Yuji Kitajima

78'

E. Miyamoto← M. Hasegawa

78'

K. Kasai← Y. Hoshi

86'

Y. Wakatsuki← Y. Komi

86'

T. Kamijima← T. Shichi

86'

Y. Iwasaki← K. Fujimoto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexAvispa

Overview

67%Possession33%

16Total Shots13

1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.79

8Corners5

5Fouls4

Shots

16Total Shots13

4On Target5

6Off Target7

6Blocked1

9Inside Box10

7Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

698Total Passes344

625Accurate Passes261

90%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls4

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2