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Albirex Niigata vs Avispa Fukuoka — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
F. Hayakawa 90+3'
K. Konno 85'
H. Mae 37'
5/25/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 16Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Albirex Niigata41%
×Draw27%
Avispa Fukuoka32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.32
Avispa Fukuoka
1.14

Albirex Niigata creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.31
Avispa Fukuoka
0.93

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.35
Avispa Fukuoka
1.33

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.31scores less
Avispa Fukuoka+0.23scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
68%
Albirex Niigata or Avispa Fukuoka
73%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
59%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
19%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
73%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
38%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
15%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
68%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
32%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
56%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.33 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.31 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Avispa Fukuoka attack 0.93 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
41%
level
27%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
32%

Albirex Niigata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
H. MaeAvispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka · M
7.9

Match Events

33'
Seiya Inoue
37'
H. Mae
69'
A. Ishiyama← J. Okumura
69'
E. Matsuda← Y. Komi
73'
M. Shigemi← R. Tsuruno
76'
Douglas Grolli
84'
Y. Shimada← K. Chiba
85'
K. Konno↳ Douglas Grolli
87'
Y. Kitajima← K. Konno
90+3'
F. Hayakawa

Possession

75%Albirex

Shots

9Albirex

Pass accuracy

54%Albirex

Statistics

AlbirexAvispa
Overview
75%Possession25%
9Total Shots7
0.56Expected Goals (xG)0.73
6Corners5
5Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots7
1On Target3
6Off Target3
2Blocked1
6Inside Box2
3Outside Box5
Passing
75%Possession25%
778Total Passes252
689Accurate Passes191
89%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
5Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Avispa Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka beat Albirex Niigata 2-1 in J1 League on May 25, 2024.

Goals: H. Mae (37'), K. Konno (85'), F. Hayakawa (90+3').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (75%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.