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Avangard Kursk vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
R. Akbashev 90+3', 36'
M. Glushenkov 37'
10/6/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Avangard Kursk44%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo Moscow31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.48
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

Avangard Kursk creates 23% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 52 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.38
Chertanovo Moscow
1.21

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.19
Chertanovo Moscow
1.58

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
69%
Avangard Kursk or Chertanovo Moscow
74%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
56%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
21%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
77%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
43%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
19%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
70%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
34%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
59%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.38 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
44%
level
26%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
31%

Avangard Kursk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
R. Akbashev
37'
M. Glushenkov
90+3'
R. Akbashev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Chertanovo Moscow

Avangard Kursk beat Chertanovo Moscow 2-1 in First League on October 6, 2018.

Goals: R. Akbashev (36', 90+3'), M. Glushenkov (37').

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy (Kursk).