Avai 1–2 Atletico Paranaense: Result & Stats

Avai

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Paranaense

Marquinhos Gabriel 78'

Renan Peixoto 76'

Luiz Fernando 26'

6/21/2025

Serie B · Round 13Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Avai43%

×Draw27%

Atletico Paranaense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchAtletico Paranaense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Avai

1.36

Atletico Paranaense

1.10

Avai creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

1.34

creates per match

1.30

0.91

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Atletico Paranaense

1.30

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Atletico Paranaense

1.38

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Atletico Paranaense+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Atletico Paranaense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avai or draw

70%

Avai or Atletico Paranaense

73%

Draw or Atletico Paranaense

57%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

20%

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

74%

Avai 2+ goals

39%

Avai 3+ goals

16%

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

67%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

30%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

59%

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.30 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avai scores more

43%

level

27%

Atletico Paranaense scores more

30%

Avai at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

L. Esquivel

Atletico Paranaense · D

7.3

Match Events

25'

João Cruz

26'

Luiz Fernando↳ L. Esquivel

38'

Cléber

46'

Raul← Joao Cruz

66'

Alef Manga← Gustavo Barreto

66'

Thayllon← Emerson Negueba

68'

JP← Railan

69'

B. Zapelli← Giuliano

69'

Renan Peixoto← Alan Kardec

76'

Renan Peixoto

78'

Marquinhos Gabriel

79'

Hygor← Cleber

79'

Gaspar← Mendes

81'

Tevis← Luiz Fernando

86'

Thayllon Roberth

90'

Lucas Esquivel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiAtletico

Overview

71%Possession29%

15Total Shots8

0.69Expected Goals (xG)0.42

4Corners2

11Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target4

9Off Target1

2Blocked3

6Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

550Total Passes216

450Accurate Passes133

82%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1